NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for ABQ NWS Office
000
FXUS65 KABQ 172129
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT THU MAY 17 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS RELATIVELY QUIET...THERE ARE
SEVERAL IMPORTANT FEATURES TO NOTE.
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE PLAINS AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL VORT AXIS ACROSS THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW DRY
STORMS OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL ISOLD
DRY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE PLAINS THIS EVENING CLOSER TO
THE ACTUAL UPPER WAVE. REGARDLESS ALL ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
MID EVENING.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON IS INCREASING WINDS OVER THE REGION. SMOKE PLUMES
FROM THE GLADIATOR...SUNFLOWER...AND BALDY FIRES ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MINIMAL SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA FURTHER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES WITH A 30-40 KNOT 700-500MB LAYER JET. WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT RE-EXAMINE FOR POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE
AZ STATE LINE. FRIDAY WE WILL FIND OUT ABOUT ANY LIGHTNING STARTS
OVER LINCOLN/CHAVES COUNTIES FROM STORMS TODAY AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
SMOKE WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT OUR AREA. CURRENT HYSPLIT TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST SMOKE PLUMES WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
THEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO DO NOT
INDICATE ANY INVERSION EFFECTS THUS MITIGATING SMOKE IMPACTS AT
THE SURFACE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM FRIDAY WITH A FEW RECORDS POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL FORCE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP
THE EAST SLOPES WHERE A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
COOL EVEN FURTHER SUNDAY WITH READINGS ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE EAST.
ALL EYES ARE THEN ONTO SKY COVER FOR THE ECLIPSE SUNDAY EVENING. THE
LATEST 18Z CROSS SECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NM SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM 8-10KFT TO THE WEST OF ABQ. THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT ANY
WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT HANGS UP
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CURRENT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANYTHING
THAT FORMS WILL BE OF THE VIRGA VARIETY AT BEST WITH ONLY WISPY
MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER. GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY TO THE WEST OF ABQ WITH MORE CLOUDS FARTHER EAST.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BEFORE
ANOTHER RIDGE BREAK DOWN PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL FIRE GROWTH PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A SHORT LIVED TSRA OR TWO ACROSS N
HIGH TERRAIN AND E OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN...BUT ONLY SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION HAZARD WITH THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 30 OR
POSSIBLY 40 KTS. THAT WILL DIMINISH BY OR BEFORE 03 TO 04Z THIS EVE.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER NEAR SFC WINDS FRI ACROSS MAINLY WEST THIRD OF THE
STATE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. EASTERN AREAS
SLIGHTLY LOWER. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN FEWER SHORT LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR N HIGH TERRAIN AND E OF CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...BUT ONLY SIGNIFICANT HAZARD WITH THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 OR POSSIBLY 40 KTS AND PERHAPS A VERY FEW DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THAT WILL DIMINISH BY OR BEFORE 03 TO 04Z THIS
EVE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN AND EXTREME EASTERN ZONES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRI AS IT HEADS TO EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY THE
WEST...AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS GOOD PORTION OF W CENTRAL AN FAR NW NM...THUS RED
FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. THERE IS A 2
TO 4 HOUR CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERIOD PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND NE NM
BUT WITH GREEN UP UNDERWAY WITH GREATER VIGOR THERE...WILL LEAVE
THAT AREA OUT OF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. HIGH HAINES OF 6 AGAIN
MOST AREAS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND PERHAPS FAR NE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. POOR TO
FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES MOST AREAS THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...BUT
WILL IMPROVE GREATLY E AND MODERATELY SO CENTRAL BY SAT NIGHT WITH
BACK DOOR FRONT USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A DECENT EAST GAP
WIND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS IS FAIRLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERHAPS AS SOON AS EARLY SUNDAY.
COOLER WITH INCREASED RH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. A
FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT TO EXIST WITH SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WEST. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REACHING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...FINALLY USHERING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE WEST AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORN...BUT
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THERE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WARMING ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...SO MIN RH WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THERE WHILE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST. HIGH HAINES OF 6
NORTHWEST. WARMER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF
HIGH HAINES.
43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 83 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 78 32 73 / 0 10 5 5
CUBA............................ 41 82 37 75 / 0 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 43 79 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 38 76 34 70 / 0 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 80 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 79 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 85 37 81 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 41 71 35 67 / 0 10 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 76 46 69 / 0 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 49 78 45 71 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 76 38 68 / 5 10 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 39 66 34 61 / 10 10 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 69 33 63 / 10 10 10 10
TAOS............................ 39 79 37 72 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 45 74 42 66 / 10 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 44 84 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 76 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 81 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 86 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 88 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 89 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 88 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 88 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 88 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 90 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 85 46 77 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 87 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 82 41 76 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 80 46 72 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 83 45 76 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 87 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 79 47 72 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 79 48 71 / 10 5 5 10
RATON........................... 49 87 47 79 / 10 5 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 46 84 46 77 / 10 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 81 48 72 / 10 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 54 90 59 82 / 10 0 5 5
ROY............................. 50 85 53 77 / 10 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 53 91 56 87 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 89 57 85 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 96 61 89 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 90 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 91 56 89 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 94 58 92 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 95 59 93 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 90 56 84 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 52 81 51 78 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-109.
&&
$$
GUYER/43
NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion
